What the model believes
- Recommended landing range: $2.45M to $2.53M.
- Rep commit $1.43M · evidence-vetted $1.09M · win-rate baseline $0.98M.
- Pipeline coverage of the remaining target: 100%.
- Best case adds $0.96M if the softer commitments hold.
RevAssembly Tool 01
Revenue Predictability Model
Compare the number your team is calling with what the pipeline evidence and your historical conversion actually support — then land on a range you would defend in a board meeting.
- 1Pick an example pipeline below, or edit any deal to match your own.
- 2Open a deal and check off the evidence your customer has actually confirmed.
- 3Set your win rates and slip rate, then read the recommended landing range.
Step 1 — Load an example pipeline
Enterprise-led motion, long cycles, a commit number carried by three large deals.
The recommendation
Where this model believes the quarter lands
$2.45Mto$2.53M
76% of commit is evidence-backed
Rep commit
$1.43M
Evidence-vetted
$1.09M
Win-rate baseline
$0.98M
Pipeline coverage
1.0×
Your team is committing $1.43M, your historical win rates support $0.98M, and the deals with confirmed customer evidence support $1.09M. $0.64M of that commit sits on deals that are single-threaded or missing core customer evidence (Northwind Logistics, Arcadia Health).
Including $1.45M already closed, the win-rate baseline lands at $2.43M — a $2.57M gap to the $5.00M target.
Step 2 — Deal evidence
Northwind Logistics
$640K · Commercial · Rep calls it Commit
Evidence confirmed
67%
- Stalled — 64d in stage vs 31d avg
- Single-threaded — 2 contacts recorded
- Unverified commit — missing decision timeline confirmed and economic buyer engaged
This deal is excluded from the evidence-vetted number because: no decision timeline confirmed, no economic buyer engaged, only 2 contacts.
Open pipeline
Click a deal to inspect it
Northwind Logistics
New Logo · rep calls it Commit
Arcadia Health
New Logo · rep calls it Commit
Volta Manufacturing
Expansion · rep calls it Commit
Helios Retail Group
New Logo · rep calls it Best Case
Cobalt Financial
Expansion · rep calls it Best Case
Meridian Labs
New Logo · rep calls it Pipeline
Southport Utilities
New Logo · rep calls it Pipeline
Kestrel Software
Expansion · rep calls it Best Case
Step 3 — Your assumptions
What your team typically produces
These rates create the win-rate baseline. They are an input, not a forecast on their own — change them and every number above moves.
12%
Slip rate is the share of commit and best-case pipeline that historically pushes into a later quarter rather than closing lost. It is applied to every forecast line.
Round-up
The forecast call, written out
Working from 8 open opportunities worth $3.56M, with $1.45M already closed, this model expects the quarter to land between $2.45M and $2.53M — $2.57M short of the $5.00M target.
Your team is calling $1.43M in commit. Only $1.09M of that is backed by customer-verified evidence, so the call carries roughly 76% evidence support. The win-rate baseline on the same pipeline produces $0.98M, using 24% on new logo and 58% on expansion with a 12% slip rate applied.
$0.64M of commit is the disagreement: those deals are being called without a confirmed timeline or an engaged economic buyer. That is the number to inspect first this week.
Where the risk sits
- 7 of 8 deals carry at least one risk flag (11 flags total).
- Unverified commit: Northwind Logistics.
- Single-threaded: Northwind Logistics, Helios Retail Group, Southport Utilities — two or fewer contacts recorded.
- Stalled beyond 1.5x the 31-day stage average: Northwind Logistics, Helios Retail Group.
Assumptions this rests on
- New logo win rate 24%, expansion 58%.
- Average sales cycle 96 days; slip rate 12% applied to every forecast line.
- A deal only counts as evidence-vetted with a confirmed timeline, an engaged economic buyer and three or more contacts.
- No deal reached Commit unusually fast against your stated cycle.
What to do next
- Inspect the 1 unverified commit deal before the next forecast call and either confirm evidence or move the category.
- Close the $2.57M gap with pipeline you can still cycle inside 96 days, or set expectations now rather than at quarter end.
- Multi-thread the single-threaded deals — add a second and third contact before they are called commit.
- Report the range, not a single number, and show the evidence that moves the bottom of it.
This is a scenario model, not a prediction. Use it to expose assumptions and decide which deals deserve inspection this week.
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